Here's how a financial panic sometimes works: someone writes a very long, very detailed thought experiment about a scary future. The market reads the headline, gets spooked, and sells the stocks that seem most obviously in the crosshairs. And sometimes, in its rush for the exits, the market sells the wrong ones.

That's roughly what happened Monday after Citrini Research published a sprawling 7,000-word Substack post over the weekend. The piece, titled "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis," was explicitly framed as "a scenario, not a prediction." It painted a picture of a future where AI agents—autonomous software programs making purchases—could reroute transactions away from traditional credit card networks and onto cheaper, faster stablecoin payment rails. The hypothetical result? The economics of credit card interchange fees get wiped out.

By Monday's open, the mood had soured. The S&P 500 turned red and closed down more than 1%. Shares of payment giants took a direct hit: Mastercard, Visa, American Express, and even DoorDash (DASH) each fell between 4% and 6%. The narrative was simple and terrifying for investors: AI is coming for the card networks.

But according to Louis Amira, CEO of Circuit & Chisel—a platform for AI agent commerce backed by Stripe and Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)—the market's panic might be a bit misplaced. Or at least, misdirected.

"It's also important to separate the networks from the issuers," Amira told MarketDash. "Visa and Mastercard take only a small number of basis points. They pride themselves on being 'technology companies,' even if their original stakeholders were the issuing banks. Most of that 2–3% goes to issuers and other intermediaries. If fees compress, the greater pressure is likely on those players."

Think of it this way: when you swipe your card, the merchant pays a fee. That fee gets split up. Visa and Mastercard operate the networks—the plumbing—and take a relatively small cut for providing that service. The big slice of the pie, often the majority of that 2-3% total, goes to the bank that actually issued you the card. That's who's extending you credit, managing your account, and assuming the risk.

Citrini's scenario actually called out this distinction. It highlighted card-focused banks like American Express, Synchrony Financial, Capital One Financial, and Discover Financial Services as carrying the "sharpest exposure," noting their "moats were made of friction." In other words, their profitable business models are built on the very inefficiency and cost that AI agents would be programmed to bypass.

So, is the underlying idea—AI agents choosing cheaper ways to pay—completely nuts? Not according to Amira. The economic logic, he says, is sound.

"If AI agents are optimizing for cost and efficiency, they will naturally route transactions toward cheaper rails when possible," he explained. "In machine-to-machine commerce, a 2–3% interchange fee is significant, especially when stablecoins can settle near-instantly at a fraction of the cost."

Imagine a future where software handles procurement for a factory. Every bolt, widget, and service is bought automatically. If that software can shave even 1% off the cost of every transaction by avoiding credit card fees, it will. For low-margin businesses, that's a game-changer. This doesn't mean Visa and Mastercard terminals vanish from stores tomorrow. But it does suggest a slow, persistent pressure on the old way of doing things, where friction meant fees.

"This will reshape transaction economics over time," Amira said of the broader shift. "When software controls transactions, it optimizes for efficiency, putting pressure on models built on friction and fees. Incumbents won't vanish overnight, but companies are already exploring stablecoins and alternative rails, because even a 1–2% savings can materially change the economics."

So, the next time you see a market freak out over a futuristic research report, it might be worth asking: did everyone read past the headline? In this case, the scary AI-stablecoin future might be less about dismantling the payment networks and more about squeezing the banks that got rich collecting the tolls.