Here’s a fun question for earnings season: When your company is the prize in a tug-of-war between two media giants, do the quarterly financials even matter? That’s the situation for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) as it gets ready to report fourth-quarter results Thursday morning. With Netflix Inc. (NFLX) and Paramount Skydance (PSKY) actively trying to buy it—or big chunks of it—the usual drama of beating or missing estimates feels almost quaint.

So, what are we watching? Let’s break it down.

The Numbers Game: What Analysts Expect

According to consensus estimates, the company is expected to report revenue of $9.38 billion. That’s down from $10.03 billion in the same quarter last year. If that sounds familiar, it should: the company has now missed analyst revenue estimates for 15 consecutive quarters. That’s not a typo. Fifteen.

On the bottom line, the story is a bit brighter. Analysts are looking for earnings per share of 3 cents. That’s up from a loss of 20 cents per share a year ago. Still, the company has a habit of disappointing here too, having missed EPS estimates in eight of the last ten quarters. In a normal world, this track record would be the main event. But this isn’t a normal world.

The Real Show: The Bidding War Backdrop

The financial report is really just the opening act. The main feature is the corporate drama unfolding off-stage. Warner Bros. Discovery is currently fielding two competing offers, and the board is playing them against each other.

On one side, you have Netflix. Its offer is surgical: $27.75 per share, but only for the company’s crown jewels—the film and television studios and the HBO streaming segment. It’s not a bid for the whole company.

On the other side, Paramount Skydance has come in with a revised, all-cash offer of $31 per share for the entire company. That’s up from a previous bid of $30. This isn't just a higher number; it's a more comprehensive proposal. Paramount’s bid includes a hefty $7 billion regulatory termination fee and even covers a $2.8 billion fee Warner Bros. would owe Netflix if it walks away from their existing deal. The Warner Bros. board has already signaled that this could be a "superior proposal" to Netflix's offer. If they make it official, Netflix gets four business days to come back with something better.

What to Watch in the Results (If Anyone's Still Watching)

With all this merger chatter, the quarterly details might seem like small potatoes. The stock, after all, is trading around $29, right in the thick of the proposed deal prices. There’s only so much it can move up or down based on earnings alone when its fate is being decided in boardrooms.

Still, certain segments will be under the microscope precisely because they’re what the bidders want. The company reported 128 million streaming subscribers at the end of Q3. That number has been climbing steadily. Investors will want to see if that growth continued and, just as importantly, if the company can make money from it. Last quarter, streaming revenue was flat; ad sales were up, but revenue per user was down.

These figures aren't just vanity metrics. If Netflix ultimately wins, combining HBO Max with its own platform would create a streaming behemoth, inviting intense regulatory scrutiny. The subscriber base and its financial health would be central to that review.

The film studio performance will also get a look. There’s a real concern in Hollywood that if Netflix—a company known for prioritizing its streaming service over theatrical releases—acquires these assets, it could mean fewer big movies in theaters and potential job losses. How the studio pipeline is performing could hint at its standalone value.

The Stock: Already Priced for a Deal?

Warner Bros. Discovery shares were down slightly Wednesday, trading around $29.02. The stock has had a wild ride, with a 52-week range from $7.52 to $30. Over the last year, it’s up a staggering 171.5%. A huge chunk of that gain is pure merger arbitrage—investors betting a deal gets done.

So, when the earnings report hits Thursday, read it with this context: The numbers tell a story of a traditional media company navigating a tough transition, with declining revenue but maybe turning a profit. The stock price, however, is telling a completely different story—one about corporate control and the future of Hollywood. For now, the latter narrative is drowning out the former.