Shares of Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) are taking a walk on the down side. The footwear and accessories company reported fourth-quarter results that were, in the classic Wall Street phrase, "mixed." It beat on the bottom line but missed on the top, and then decided not to tell investors what it thinks profits will look like for the full year ahead. The reason? Tariffs. That uncertainty was enough to send the stock sliding.

The Numbers: A Penny Beat, A Hairline Miss

Let's start with the headline figures. For the quarter, Steven Madden reported adjusted earnings per share of 48 cents. That edged out the analyst consensus estimate of 47 cents. So, a beat. A small one, but a beat nonetheless.

On the sales side, the company brought in $753.7 million. That's a hefty 29.4% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Impressive growth, right? Well, the Street was looking for $753.9 million. So, a miss. A tiny one—just $200,000 on over three-quarters of a billion in revenue—but a miss all the same. In the world of earnings reactions, sometimes it's the symbolism that counts.

Digging a little deeper, adjusted income from operations was $50.9 million, down from $52.6 million a year ago. The company ended the quarter with 399 of its own stores, seven e-commerce sites, and 133 concessions abroad. It had $234.2 million in debt and $112.4 million in cash. Shareholders will get a quarterly dividend of 21 cents per share in March, but the company didn't buy back any of its own stock in 2025.

Where The Money Came From

The story of the quarter is really a story of two channels: wholesale and direct-to-consumer (DTC).

Wholesale revenue hit $433.3 million, up 7.5% year-over-year. But here's the kicker: if you exclude the contribution from the Kurt Geiger business it acquired, wholesale revenue actually decreased by 2.6%. Within wholesale, footwear sales were up 11% (or 5.5% excluding Geiger), while accessories and apparel rose 3.1% (but fell 13% excluding Geiger). The adjusted gross profit margin for wholesale improved to 31.5% from 30.5%, thanks largely to adding the Kurt Geiger business.

Now, the direct-to-consumer side is where things got explosive. DTC revenue was $316.6 million, a staggering 79.9% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. That's the kind of number that makes growth investors sit up straight. However, the adjusted gross profit margin for DTC contracted to 59.8% from 62% a year ago. The company cited two reasons: the addition of the Kurt Geiger concessions business (which typically carries a different margin profile) and—here it is again—"the impact of new tariffs on goods imported into the U.S."

The Big Unknown: Tariffs and Guidance

This brings us to the main event, the thing that seems to be spooking the market. For the full 2026 fiscal year, Steven Madden is projecting revenue growth of 9% to 11%. That's a solid outlook. But when it comes to the all-important question of earnings? Crickets.

The company stated plainly: "Due to uncertainty related to the U.S. tariff policy, the company is not providing earnings guidance at this time." In investor-speak, that's a giant question mark hanging over the profitability of all that projected sales growth. It tells the market that management itself can't confidently model its own bottom line because of potential costs imposed by trade policy.

What The Boss Said

Chairman and CEO Edward Rosenfeld tried to strike a balance between optimism and realism. "Looking to 2026, we are encouraged by the momentum building in our flagship Steve Madden brand and the opportunity for growth in Kurt Geiger London," he said.

Then came the "but." "That said, we expect pressure on our private label business as well as higher SG&A driven by the normalization of incentive compensation and the restoration of senior executive salaries," Rosenfeld continued. "While we continue to face uncertainty related to tariffs, the fundamentals of our business are strong."

It's the classic management maneuver: highlight the strengths, acknowledge the challenges (especially the ones you can't control, like government policy), and express overall confidence. The market, however, focused on the acknowledged challenge it couldn't quantify.

The result? Steven Madden shares were trading lower by 6.56% at $34.91 following the news. Investors got a penny more in earnings than they expected, but what they really wanted was clarity on the path forward. On that, for now, the company is keeping its cards close to the vest.