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Outback's Parent Company Shows Signs of Life as Turnaround Plan Takes Hold

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Bloomin' Brands shares climbed after a mixed earnings report, with investors betting that early signs of progress in its turnaround strategy—including the first positive traffic quarter for Outback in years—signal better days ahead.

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Sometimes in the stock market, it's not about the numbers you just printed, but the story you're telling about the numbers you're going to print next. That seems to be the case for Bloomin' Brands (BLMN), the parent company of Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, and a few other sit-down chains. The stock moved higher Wednesday after the company delivered a quarterly report that was, frankly, a bit of a mixed bag. But investors seemed willing to look past some soft spots because management started sketching a picture of a turnaround that's actually starting to work.

The company operates over 1,450 restaurants globally, and for a while now, the story has been one of trying to get customers back in the door and spending more once they're there. The fourth-quarter results showed that effort is a work in progress. Sales came in at $975.2 million, which was a tiny 0.3% increase from a year ago but just shy of what analysts were expecting. Earnings per share of 25 cents, however, hit the consensus estimate right on the nose.

The real nugget that got people's attention was buried in the commentary from CEO Mike Spanos. "Outback achieved its first quarter of positive traffic since Q4 2021," he said. For a chain that's been battling to get people through the doors, that's a meaningful data point. It suggests that the company's new strategy, which it formally launched in November, might be starting to gain some traction.

So what's the strategy? It sounds deceptively simple: be better at the core thing you do. "We launched our turnaround strategy in November with targeted investments in steak quality at Outback," Spanos explained. The idea is that by improving the food and the overall guest experience, you can win back customers and command better prices. "Over the course of this year, we expect to make additional strategic investments as we look to drive long-term, sustainable, and profitable growth," he added.

Now, it's not all sunshine and Bloomin' Onions. The financials show the pressure the company is still under. The adjusted operating margin slipped slightly to 3.4% from 3.5% a year ago. More notably, the adjusted restaurant-level operating margin—a key metric for any restaurant operator—contracted to 11.6% from 12.4%. Improving food quality and the guest experience often costs money upfront, whether it's better ingredients or more staff training, and that can squeeze margins in the short term. The market's reaction suggests investors are willing to tolerate that squeeze if it leads to a healthier business down the road.

Perhaps the biggest vote of confidence from management came in the form of their outlook. For the current quarter, they're guiding for adjusted EPS between 57 and 62 cents, which is above the analyst consensus of 56 cents. Looking further out, for the full 2026 fiscal year, they see adjusted EPS landing between 75 and 90 cents. The midpoint of that range is above the current Street estimate of 86 cents. Guidance that beats expectations is a classic way for a management team to say, "Trust us, our plan is working."

And on Wednesday, the market did trust them, at least a little. Shares of Bloomin' Brands were up nearly 3%. It's a reminder that for companies in the middle of a pivot, early operational wins—like a single quarter of positive traffic—can sometimes be more powerful in the near term than the raw financials. The bet is that fixing the fundamentals at the restaurant level will eventually fix the numbers on the income statement. For Bloomin' Brands shareholders, after a long stretch of challenges, that's a bet they seem happy to make for now.

Outback's Parent Company Shows Signs of Life as Turnaround Plan Takes Hold

MarketDash
Bloomin' Brands shares climbed after a mixed earnings report, with investors betting that early signs of progress in its turnaround strategy—including the first positive traffic quarter for Outback in years—signal better days ahead.

Get Bloomin Brands Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

Sometimes in the stock market, it's not about the numbers you just printed, but the story you're telling about the numbers you're going to print next. That seems to be the case for Bloomin' Brands (BLMN), the parent company of Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, and a few other sit-down chains. The stock moved higher Wednesday after the company delivered a quarterly report that was, frankly, a bit of a mixed bag. But investors seemed willing to look past some soft spots because management started sketching a picture of a turnaround that's actually starting to work.

The company operates over 1,450 restaurants globally, and for a while now, the story has been one of trying to get customers back in the door and spending more once they're there. The fourth-quarter results showed that effort is a work in progress. Sales came in at $975.2 million, which was a tiny 0.3% increase from a year ago but just shy of what analysts were expecting. Earnings per share of 25 cents, however, hit the consensus estimate right on the nose.

The real nugget that got people's attention was buried in the commentary from CEO Mike Spanos. "Outback achieved its first quarter of positive traffic since Q4 2021," he said. For a chain that's been battling to get people through the doors, that's a meaningful data point. It suggests that the company's new strategy, which it formally launched in November, might be starting to gain some traction.

So what's the strategy? It sounds deceptively simple: be better at the core thing you do. "We launched our turnaround strategy in November with targeted investments in steak quality at Outback," Spanos explained. The idea is that by improving the food and the overall guest experience, you can win back customers and command better prices. "Over the course of this year, we expect to make additional strategic investments as we look to drive long-term, sustainable, and profitable growth," he added.

Now, it's not all sunshine and Bloomin' Onions. The financials show the pressure the company is still under. The adjusted operating margin slipped slightly to 3.4% from 3.5% a year ago. More notably, the adjusted restaurant-level operating margin—a key metric for any restaurant operator—contracted to 11.6% from 12.4%. Improving food quality and the guest experience often costs money upfront, whether it's better ingredients or more staff training, and that can squeeze margins in the short term. The market's reaction suggests investors are willing to tolerate that squeeze if it leads to a healthier business down the road.

Perhaps the biggest vote of confidence from management came in the form of their outlook. For the current quarter, they're guiding for adjusted EPS between 57 and 62 cents, which is above the analyst consensus of 56 cents. Looking further out, for the full 2026 fiscal year, they see adjusted EPS landing between 75 and 90 cents. The midpoint of that range is above the current Street estimate of 86 cents. Guidance that beats expectations is a classic way for a management team to say, "Trust us, our plan is working."

And on Wednesday, the market did trust them, at least a little. Shares of Bloomin' Brands were up nearly 3%. It's a reminder that for companies in the middle of a pivot, early operational wins—like a single quarter of positive traffic—can sometimes be more powerful in the near term than the raw financials. The bet is that fixing the fundamentals at the restaurant level will eventually fix the numbers on the income statement. For Bloomin' Brands shareholders, after a long stretch of challenges, that's a bet they seem happy to make for now.