So here's a fun legal question: if a court says a tariff was illegal, does the government have to give the money back? That's what a bunch of companies are wondering after the Supreme Court last week struck down tariffs that were imposed by the Donald Trump administration under a specific law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The ruling itself didn't say anything about refunds. But in the world of corporate law, an opening is an opening. If the foundation for the tariff is gone, the logical next question from anyone who paid is: can I have my money back, please?

And FedEx isn't waiting around to find out. The global shipping giant has already filed a lawsuit seeking to recover the tariffs it paid. The lawsuit doesn't put a specific dollar amount on it—FedEx is just asking for a "full refund" from the U.S. Treasury. You can't blame them for trying. When there's potentially billions on the table, you send in the lawyers.

But will it work? To get a sense of what the smart money thinks, we can look at the prediction markets. There's a platform called Polymarket, which runs on the Polygon (POL) blockchain and lets people bet on outcomes using the USDC (USDC) stablecoin. Right now, it has an active contract asking: "Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?"

The market has seen over $160,000 in bets, which is serious money for this kind of thing. And the traders have a pretty clear opinion: probably not. As of now, the market is assigning only a 19% probability to "Yes" and a whopping 82% probability to "No." That's a pretty confident bet against refunds happening.

It makes some sense. The Supreme Court's ruling was about the legal authority to impose the tariffs, not about restitution. The Trump administration hasn't said a word about issuing refunds. Forcing a past administration to give back money collected under a law later found inapplicable is a messy, unprecedented legal fight. The prediction market is essentially betting that the courts will say "the tariff is gone going forward, but what's done is done" for money already collected.

This view finds some support on Wall Street. Analysts at Goldman Sachs pointed out that while the ruling opens the door for companies to seek refunds on the roughly $133 billion collected from importers, the process is totally unclear. They also threw cold water on the idea of immediate relief for consumers, cautioning not to count on price drops stemming from this decision. The path from a court ruling to a company getting a check from the government is long, winding, and full of legal potholes.

So, we're left with a classic Washington scenario. A court creates an opening. Companies line up to walk through it. But the betting markets and Wall Street analysts are skeptical that anyone actually gets their money back. It's a fight worth billions, but sometimes the house just wins.