Here's a fun one: the Supreme Court just said a big chunk of those Trump-era tariffs were illegal. So prices on imported goods should drop, right? Not so fast, says Goldman Sachs.

In a 6-3 ruling on Friday, the court struck down tariffs that were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Remember those? They started at 10% and later got bumped to 15%. The legal reasoning is for the lawyers, but the practical question for everyone else is: does this mean my stuff gets cheaper?

The short answer from the economists at Goldman Sachs Inc. (GS) is: probably not, and definitely not quickly. "We would not expect companies to lower prices in response to tariff reductions nearly as quickly as they increased them in response to tariff increases," they wrote in a note over the weekend. It's the old story: prices go up like a rocket and come down like a feather.

The Inflation That's Already in the Pipeline

Think of inflation like a baked cake. The tariffs have already done their work. Goldman estimates that the pass-through of these costs has already lifted the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, by about 0.7% through January. They project only a tiny additional 0.1% increase from here through the end of 2026.

Even with this court ruling, the overall effective tariff rate only dips slightly—from just over 10 percentage points to about 9. So, the bank's broader inflation outlook is basically unchanged. The ruling takes some pressure off, but it doesn't reverse the story.

And here's the kicker for anyone hoping for a check in the mail: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent poured cold water on the idea of refunds for the roughly $180 billion in tariffs already collected, calling it "unlikely" that Americans would see that money returned.

What Actually Changes (And What Doesn't)

Immediately after the ruling, U.S. Customs and Border Protection stopped collecting tariffs under the invalidated law and disabled the related codes. So that spigot is turned off.

But—and this is a big but—a lot of tariffs are still very much in place. The ones imposed under other authorities, like Section 232 (national security) and Section 301 (unfair trade practices), are unaffected by this decision. The tariff landscape got a trim, not a clear-cut.

The political reaction was swift. California Governor Gavin Newsom called the original policy "madness" and argued it was illegal from the start, urging refunds. Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer tried to reassure international partners, stating the White House would stand by its trade agreements with the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, noting those deals weren't dependent on this court decision.

He acknowledged the administration has less flexibility without the IEEPA authority but expressed confidence in the continuity of the broader tariff program. So, for global trade, it's business as usual, just with one fewer tool in the toolbox.

So, to sum up: a legal win for tariff opponents, a logistical change for customs officials, but for you, the consumer at the checkout line? Don't hold your breath for lower prices. The companies that raised them have little incentive to rush a reversal, and the inflation genie is already out of the bottle.