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Michael Burry's Market Scorecard: The Bitcoin Bet He Missed and the 'Collateral Death Spiral' He Fears

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The 'Big Short' investor reviewed 26 years of his market calls, revealing a 2013 Bitcoin opportunity he passed on and explaining why he still thinks the crypto lacks a durable purpose.

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Michael Burry, the investor famous for betting against the housing bubble, decided to do a little self-audit over the weekend. In a post on X, he laid out what he called 26 years of his major market calls. It's a fascinating list that includes being short Amazon.com (AMZN) at the top in 2000, buying Apple (AAPL) in 1998 and again in 2002, and getting into Korean and Chinese stocks ahead of big runs in the early 2000s.

But the real headline-grabber in this retrospective is the one that got away: Bitcoin.

Burry wrote that he considered buying Bitcoin back in 2013 after meeting a friend at venture firm Lightspeed, but he didn't pull the trigger. He essentially says he "slept" on it. Given that Bitcoin was trading for a few hundred dollars back then and has since seen astronomical gains, that's a pretty expensive nap.

So why did he pass, and why does he remain skeptical now? His reasoning has less to do with price charts and more to do with what he sees as a fundamental flaw: Bitcoin lacks a stable, real-economy purpose that would reliably put a floor under its price during declines. In other words, it's driven by speculation, not utility.

He also pushes back hard on one of crypto's favorite narratives: that Bitcoin is "digital gold." Burry argues it has not behaved like a true hedge against currency debasement. He points out that while gold and silver have pushed to record highs during periods of geopolitical stress and dollar worries, Bitcoin has not followed that same reliable pattern.

Here's where it gets interesting for corporate America. Burry warns that the growing adoption of Bitcoin by public companies—he cites roughly 200 of them—does not guarantee its permanence. These companies have to mark their Bitcoin holdings to market in their financial statements. If prices keep sliding, risk controls could force them to sell, creating a downward spiral. It's not just an asset; it's a line item on a balance sheet that can trigger mandatory action.

This skepticism exists alongside a curiosity about the broader technology reshaping finance. Burry has noted his eagerness to learn more about tokenization—the process of creating digital tokens that represent ownership of real-world assets. Major players like JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) are already leveraging this with products like the JPM Coin to enhance client services. His interest here highlights a nuanced view: he's skeptical of Bitcoin specifically but watching the wider integration of digital assets by Wall Street.

Finally, Burry connects the dots in a way that might make traditional commodity traders sweat. He argues that stress in crypto markets doesn't stay in crypto. He ties Bitcoin's decline to sharp pullbacks in gold and silver, suggesting this happens through forced de-risking. The theory goes that traders and corporate treasurers sell profitable exposure in tokenized gold and silver futures (which, he notes, are not backed by physical metal) when crypto wobbles.

He describes a potential "collateral death spiral" dynamic in these tokenized metals markets. He even estimates that up to $1 billion of metals liquidation around month-end could be linked to crypto weakness. In a dire scenario, he outlines a world where Bitcoin at $50,000 pushes miners into bankruptcy while tokenized metals futures "collapse into a black hole with no buyer."

So, to recap: The man who saw the housing crash coming missed the Bitcoin boat a decade ago. He thinks it's still missing a fundamental economic anchor, warns that corporate balance sheets could amplify a sell-off, and fears its volatility could infect even staid markets like gold. But he's still keeping an eye on the tokenization trend that's captivating Wall Street. It's a full-spectrum view from an investor who has made a career out of spotting cracks in the foundation.

Michael Burry's Market Scorecard: The Bitcoin Bet He Missed and the 'Collateral Death Spiral' He Fears

MarketDash
The 'Big Short' investor reviewed 26 years of his market calls, revealing a 2013 Bitcoin opportunity he passed on and explaining why he still thinks the crypto lacks a durable purpose.

Get Market Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

Michael Burry, the investor famous for betting against the housing bubble, decided to do a little self-audit over the weekend. In a post on X, he laid out what he called 26 years of his major market calls. It's a fascinating list that includes being short Amazon.com (AMZN) at the top in 2000, buying Apple (AAPL) in 1998 and again in 2002, and getting into Korean and Chinese stocks ahead of big runs in the early 2000s.

But the real headline-grabber in this retrospective is the one that got away: Bitcoin.

Burry wrote that he considered buying Bitcoin back in 2013 after meeting a friend at venture firm Lightspeed, but he didn't pull the trigger. He essentially says he "slept" on it. Given that Bitcoin was trading for a few hundred dollars back then and has since seen astronomical gains, that's a pretty expensive nap.

So why did he pass, and why does he remain skeptical now? His reasoning has less to do with price charts and more to do with what he sees as a fundamental flaw: Bitcoin lacks a stable, real-economy purpose that would reliably put a floor under its price during declines. In other words, it's driven by speculation, not utility.

He also pushes back hard on one of crypto's favorite narratives: that Bitcoin is "digital gold." Burry argues it has not behaved like a true hedge against currency debasement. He points out that while gold and silver have pushed to record highs during periods of geopolitical stress and dollar worries, Bitcoin has not followed that same reliable pattern.

Here's where it gets interesting for corporate America. Burry warns that the growing adoption of Bitcoin by public companies—he cites roughly 200 of them—does not guarantee its permanence. These companies have to mark their Bitcoin holdings to market in their financial statements. If prices keep sliding, risk controls could force them to sell, creating a downward spiral. It's not just an asset; it's a line item on a balance sheet that can trigger mandatory action.

This skepticism exists alongside a curiosity about the broader technology reshaping finance. Burry has noted his eagerness to learn more about tokenization—the process of creating digital tokens that represent ownership of real-world assets. Major players like JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) are already leveraging this with products like the JPM Coin to enhance client services. His interest here highlights a nuanced view: he's skeptical of Bitcoin specifically but watching the wider integration of digital assets by Wall Street.

Finally, Burry connects the dots in a way that might make traditional commodity traders sweat. He argues that stress in crypto markets doesn't stay in crypto. He ties Bitcoin's decline to sharp pullbacks in gold and silver, suggesting this happens through forced de-risking. The theory goes that traders and corporate treasurers sell profitable exposure in tokenized gold and silver futures (which, he notes, are not backed by physical metal) when crypto wobbles.

He describes a potential "collateral death spiral" dynamic in these tokenized metals markets. He even estimates that up to $1 billion of metals liquidation around month-end could be linked to crypto weakness. In a dire scenario, he outlines a world where Bitcoin at $50,000 pushes miners into bankruptcy while tokenized metals futures "collapse into a black hole with no buyer."

So, to recap: The man who saw the housing crash coming missed the Bitcoin boat a decade ago. He thinks it's still missing a fundamental economic anchor, warns that corporate balance sheets could amplify a sell-off, and fears its volatility could infect even staid markets like gold. But he's still keeping an eye on the tokenization trend that's captivating Wall Street. It's a full-spectrum view from an investor who has made a career out of spotting cracks in the foundation.