So, the global smartphone market had a pretty decent 2025 in some places. Europe and Latin America were actually growing. But now, 2026 is rolling around the corner with what looks like a classic party-crasher: skyrocketing memory chip prices. The recent momentum might be about to hit a very expensive wall.

According to the latest from Counterpoint Research, both regions finished the year with distinct stories, but they're staring down the same troubling headline for the year ahead.

Europe: A Solid 2025 With Storm Clouds Gathering

Let's start with the good news from Europe. The market there ended 2025 on an upswing, with shipments rising 2% year-over-year in the final quarter. Apple Inc. (AAPL) took the crown for Q4, grabbing 33% of the market. Its new iPhone 17 series was the engine, driving a 7% increase in shipments, with particularly strong demand coming from Eastern Europe.

In second place was Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (SSNLF) with a 29% share. Samsung's shipments grew by 4%, which Counterpoint notes marks a recovery from a weaker performance in late 2024.

The real growth story, though, was HONOR. The brand saw its shipments jump by 18% as it kept pushing hard across Western Europe. That aggressive expansion came at a cost for others. Increased competition from Apple and Samsung ate into Xiaomi Corp.'s (XIACY) share, leading to a 6% decline for the quarter. The OPPO family of brands, which includes realme and OnePlus, also continued to face difficulties in the region.

Jan Stryjak, an Associate Director at Counterpoint, summed it up: Europe's market had a "relatively solid performance" in 2025, with Apple and Samsung growing and brands like HONOR, Motorola and Google expanding. But then he delivered the bad news: "rising memory costs are expected to weigh heavily on the outlook."

The pressure is expected to hit hardest where consumers are most sensitive: the entry-level and mid-range segments. Shipments in those categories are projected to decline year-over-year in the coming quarters. When component prices go up, the cheapest phones get squeezed first.

Latin America: All About the Budget

If Europe's story is about premium brands and growth, Latin America's is a masterclass in affordability. Throughout 2025, the region's market was driven by one thing: price. And Samsung absolutely dominated that game.

The Samsung Galaxy A06 4G wasn't just popular; it was the region's best-selling smartphone for 11 months straight, accounting for a whopping 7% of total market sales all by itself. Samsung claimed four of the top 10 spots on the bestseller list, with Motorola and Xiaomi filling out the rest.

This list tells you everything you need to know about the Latin American consumer. The top 10 models represented 33% of all sales, and the majority were priced below $200. And despite the global marketing drumbeat for 5G, 8 of those top 10 models were 4G devices. Only the Moto G35 5G and the Galaxy A56 5G managed to crack the rankings. For the entry-level and mid-range segments that define this market, 4G is still king.

But here comes the memory price problem again. In Latin America, those increasing costs are expected to do two things: push smartphone prices higher and make people hold onto their current phones longer. That's a recipe for dampened demand, especially in those crucial lower-priced tiers.

There might be a silver lining, or at least a shift in behavior. Counterpoint suggests this price pressure could actually accelerate 5G adoption in 2026. The logic goes like this: if consumers are going to have to pay more anyway, they might show a greater willingness to spend on feature-rich devices that offer better cameras, larger batteries, bigger displays, and yes, 5G connectivity. They'll want more for their money.

So, the takeaway for 2026 looks like this: The smartphone market, after finding some growth in key regions, is now facing a supply chain headache. The relentless demand for memory chips from the artificial intelligence sector is squeezing consumer electronics makers. For phone brands, it means tighter margins and tough choices about pricing. For consumers, especially those shopping for budget phones, it might mean higher prices or longer waits between upgrades. The party's not necessarily over, but the bill just arrived, and it's bigger than expected.