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Eli Lilly's Crohn's Drug Shows Stunning Long-Term Results, But What's the Trade?

MarketDash
New data reveals over 90% of patients stayed in steroid-free remission for three years on Lilly's Omvoh, a potential game-changer in inflammatory bowel disease treatment.

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So here's a story about a drug that actually seems to work. Really, really well. Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) just dropped some long-term data for its Crohn's disease treatment Omvoh, and the numbers are the kind that make biotech investors sit up a little straighter.

The headline grabber: more than 90% of patients maintained steroid-free remission for three years. Let's sit with that for a second. In the world of inflammatory bowel disease, where flare-ups are common and treatment can be a lifelong management challenge, keeping patients off steroids and in remission for that long isn't just good—it's potentially practice-changing.

The specifics from the Phase 3 VIVID-2 study show clinical remission at 92.4% and corticosteroid-free clinical remission at 91.2%. But the story gets even more interesting when you look at what this means for patients' lives beyond just the remission numbers.

Additional data from the VIVID-1 trial showed Omvoh reduced Crohn's disease-related hospitalizations and/or surgeries by nearly half versus placebo in the first 12 weeks. Then, from weeks 12 to 52, that reduction jumped to nearly 70%. In the LUCENT-3 trial for ulcerative colitis (the other major type of IBD), patients treated with Omvoh reported just one UC-related hospitalization and zero UC-related surgeries during the three-year extension period.

What this means in plain English: fewer emergency room visits, fewer surgeries, fewer disruptions to people's lives. For a chronic condition that often requires significant healthcare resources, that's not just good medicine—it's potentially good economics too.

Here's why this matters in the competitive landscape: Omvoh now stands out as the only IL-23p19 inhibitor to demonstrate this kind of durable efficacy over extended periods. The drug also showed significant improvements in bowel urgency and overall disease control. Remember, the FDA already approved Omvoh for moderately to severely active Crohn's disease in adults back in January 2025, so this isn't just promising data—it's supporting an already-approved therapy.

So What About the Stock?

Now, let's talk about what this means for investors, because good science doesn't always translate to good stock performance (though it certainly helps).

The technical picture for Eli Lilly is... mixed. The stock is trading 1.7% below its 20-day simple moving average but 4.3% above its 100-day SMA. Translation: short-term trend looks a bit weak, but longer-term strength remains. Over the past year, shares are up about 17%, sitting closer to their 52-week highs than lows.

The RSI sits at 46.60, which is neutral territory—not overbought, not oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD is at -6.7903, below its signal line at -4.8820, which technical analysts would read as bearish pressure. Key resistance sits at $1088.50 with support at $1012.50.

How's Lilly Doing in Its Sector?

Eli Lilly is currently outperforming its healthcare sector, with a slight gain of 0.02% compared to the sector's flat performance. The healthcare sector itself ranks 5 out of 11 sectors—solidly middle of the pack—and has declined 0.63% over the past month, though it's up 1.29% over the past 90 days.

News like this Omvoh data could help Lilly maintain or improve its position within the sector, especially as investors look for companies with genuine innovation rather than just incremental improvements.

Get Lilly(Eli) & Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS (optional)

The Quality vs. Value Question

Here's where things get interesting for investors thinking about whether to buy, hold, or sell. Looking at various market metrics reveals a story of two Lillys.

On one hand, you have exceptional quality—a rank of 94.09 indicates a strong balance sheet and operational efficiency. The momentum rank of 82.03 shows the stock is outperforming the broader market. These are the numbers you'd expect from a company hitting home runs with its drug pipeline.

On the other hand, the value rank sits at just 3.69, which essentially means the stock is trading at a significant premium compared to its peers. This creates a classic investor dilemma: do you pay up for quality, or wait for a better entry point?

The verdict here seems to be that Eli Lilly is executing brilliantly on the science and business fronts, but the market has already priced in much of that success. Investors should be cautious about potential overvaluation even as the company continues to deliver strong results.

As of premarket trading on Friday, Eli Lilly shares were up 0.02% at $1023.45.

Eli Lilly's Crohn's Drug Shows Stunning Long-Term Results, But What's the Trade?

MarketDash
New data reveals over 90% of patients stayed in steroid-free remission for three years on Lilly's Omvoh, a potential game-changer in inflammatory bowel disease treatment.

Get Lilly(Eli) & Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

So here's a story about a drug that actually seems to work. Really, really well. Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) just dropped some long-term data for its Crohn's disease treatment Omvoh, and the numbers are the kind that make biotech investors sit up a little straighter.

The headline grabber: more than 90% of patients maintained steroid-free remission for three years. Let's sit with that for a second. In the world of inflammatory bowel disease, where flare-ups are common and treatment can be a lifelong management challenge, keeping patients off steroids and in remission for that long isn't just good—it's potentially practice-changing.

The specifics from the Phase 3 VIVID-2 study show clinical remission at 92.4% and corticosteroid-free clinical remission at 91.2%. But the story gets even more interesting when you look at what this means for patients' lives beyond just the remission numbers.

Additional data from the VIVID-1 trial showed Omvoh reduced Crohn's disease-related hospitalizations and/or surgeries by nearly half versus placebo in the first 12 weeks. Then, from weeks 12 to 52, that reduction jumped to nearly 70%. In the LUCENT-3 trial for ulcerative colitis (the other major type of IBD), patients treated with Omvoh reported just one UC-related hospitalization and zero UC-related surgeries during the three-year extension period.

What this means in plain English: fewer emergency room visits, fewer surgeries, fewer disruptions to people's lives. For a chronic condition that often requires significant healthcare resources, that's not just good medicine—it's potentially good economics too.

Here's why this matters in the competitive landscape: Omvoh now stands out as the only IL-23p19 inhibitor to demonstrate this kind of durable efficacy over extended periods. The drug also showed significant improvements in bowel urgency and overall disease control. Remember, the FDA already approved Omvoh for moderately to severely active Crohn's disease in adults back in January 2025, so this isn't just promising data—it's supporting an already-approved therapy.

So What About the Stock?

Now, let's talk about what this means for investors, because good science doesn't always translate to good stock performance (though it certainly helps).

The technical picture for Eli Lilly is... mixed. The stock is trading 1.7% below its 20-day simple moving average but 4.3% above its 100-day SMA. Translation: short-term trend looks a bit weak, but longer-term strength remains. Over the past year, shares are up about 17%, sitting closer to their 52-week highs than lows.

The RSI sits at 46.60, which is neutral territory—not overbought, not oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD is at -6.7903, below its signal line at -4.8820, which technical analysts would read as bearish pressure. Key resistance sits at $1088.50 with support at $1012.50.

How's Lilly Doing in Its Sector?

Eli Lilly is currently outperforming its healthcare sector, with a slight gain of 0.02% compared to the sector's flat performance. The healthcare sector itself ranks 5 out of 11 sectors—solidly middle of the pack—and has declined 0.63% over the past month, though it's up 1.29% over the past 90 days.

News like this Omvoh data could help Lilly maintain or improve its position within the sector, especially as investors look for companies with genuine innovation rather than just incremental improvements.

Get Lilly(Eli) & Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS (optional)

The Quality vs. Value Question

Here's where things get interesting for investors thinking about whether to buy, hold, or sell. Looking at various market metrics reveals a story of two Lillys.

On one hand, you have exceptional quality—a rank of 94.09 indicates a strong balance sheet and operational efficiency. The momentum rank of 82.03 shows the stock is outperforming the broader market. These are the numbers you'd expect from a company hitting home runs with its drug pipeline.

On the other hand, the value rank sits at just 3.69, which essentially means the stock is trading at a significant premium compared to its peers. This creates a classic investor dilemma: do you pay up for quality, or wait for a better entry point?

The verdict here seems to be that Eli Lilly is executing brilliantly on the science and business fronts, but the market has already priced in much of that success. Investors should be cautious about potential overvaluation even as the company continues to deliver strong results.

As of premarket trading on Friday, Eli Lilly shares were up 0.02% at $1023.45.