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Lamar Advertising's 2026 Outlook: A Billboard of Confidence After Solid Q4

MarketDash
Lamar Advertising delivered a mixed but fundamentally strong Q4, beating revenue estimates and issuing a robust profit forecast for 2026 that signals continued momentum.

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So, how's the billboard business doing? Pretty well, it turns out. Lamar Advertising Co (LAMR) reported its quarterly results on Friday, and the numbers paint a picture of a company that's not just sticking to the wall but growing on it.

The headline number: net revenue grew 2.8% year-over-year to $595.93 million. That's not earth-shattering growth, but it did top the analyst consensus estimate of $592.45 million. Sometimes beating expectations by a few million is all it takes to show you're on the right track.

Now, the earnings per share story is a bit more nuanced. The company reported quarterly EPS of $1.50, which just barely missed the analyst consensus of $1.51. That's the kind of miss that makes you wonder if someone rounded a number the wrong way. But look at the operating income: it jumped to $196.1 million from $36.7 million year-over-year. That's not a typo—it's a massive improvement, though it's worth noting the prior year's figure was likely depressed by specific one-time factors or accounting treatments common in the industry.

Other financial metrics showed steady health. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter rose 3.7% year-over-year to $288.87 million. Diluted AFFO (Adjusted Funds From Operations) per share, a key metric for real estate investment trusts like Lamar, increased to $2.24 from $2.21. Cash generation was solid, with $271.2 million in operating cash flow for the quarter, though that was down slightly from $279.3 million a year ago. Free cash flow followed a similar pattern at $187.1 million, down from $195.6 million. The company held $64.8 million in cash and equivalents as of December 31, 2025.

The real story here isn't just about the quarter that ended—it's about the year that's coming. CEO Sean Reilly said the company closed 2025 with "encouraging sales momentum," delivering fourth-quarter growth in both local and national categories "despite difficult political comparisons." That last bit is important. 2025 was a big election year, which typically means a flood of political ad dollars for billboards. Growing after that wave recedes shows underlying business strength.

Reilly added that this momentum has carried into 2026, with "strong pacing for the rest of the year." And the company put numbers behind that optimism.

The 2026 Roadmap

Lamar expects fiscal 2026 EPS in the range of $5.72 to $5.83. For context, the analyst consensus estimate sits at $5.75, right in the middle of that range. They also forecast diluted AFFO per share of $8.50 to $8.70. This guidance suggests management sees a clear path to sustained profitability and cash flow generation. It's a confident outlook for a business that lives on highways and street corners.

In the market, Lamar Advertising stock closed lower by 0.67% at $132.83 on Thursday. Sometimes the market takes a minute to read the signs.

Lamar Advertising's 2026 Outlook: A Billboard of Confidence After Solid Q4

MarketDash
Lamar Advertising delivered a mixed but fundamentally strong Q4, beating revenue estimates and issuing a robust profit forecast for 2026 that signals continued momentum.

Get Lamar Advertising Co - Class A Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

So, how's the billboard business doing? Pretty well, it turns out. Lamar Advertising Co (LAMR) reported its quarterly results on Friday, and the numbers paint a picture of a company that's not just sticking to the wall but growing on it.

The headline number: net revenue grew 2.8% year-over-year to $595.93 million. That's not earth-shattering growth, but it did top the analyst consensus estimate of $592.45 million. Sometimes beating expectations by a few million is all it takes to show you're on the right track.

Now, the earnings per share story is a bit more nuanced. The company reported quarterly EPS of $1.50, which just barely missed the analyst consensus of $1.51. That's the kind of miss that makes you wonder if someone rounded a number the wrong way. But look at the operating income: it jumped to $196.1 million from $36.7 million year-over-year. That's not a typo—it's a massive improvement, though it's worth noting the prior year's figure was likely depressed by specific one-time factors or accounting treatments common in the industry.

Other financial metrics showed steady health. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter rose 3.7% year-over-year to $288.87 million. Diluted AFFO (Adjusted Funds From Operations) per share, a key metric for real estate investment trusts like Lamar, increased to $2.24 from $2.21. Cash generation was solid, with $271.2 million in operating cash flow for the quarter, though that was down slightly from $279.3 million a year ago. Free cash flow followed a similar pattern at $187.1 million, down from $195.6 million. The company held $64.8 million in cash and equivalents as of December 31, 2025.

The real story here isn't just about the quarter that ended—it's about the year that's coming. CEO Sean Reilly said the company closed 2025 with "encouraging sales momentum," delivering fourth-quarter growth in both local and national categories "despite difficult political comparisons." That last bit is important. 2025 was a big election year, which typically means a flood of political ad dollars for billboards. Growing after that wave recedes shows underlying business strength.

Reilly added that this momentum has carried into 2026, with "strong pacing for the rest of the year." And the company put numbers behind that optimism.

The 2026 Roadmap

Lamar expects fiscal 2026 EPS in the range of $5.72 to $5.83. For context, the analyst consensus estimate sits at $5.75, right in the middle of that range. They also forecast diluted AFFO per share of $8.50 to $8.70. This guidance suggests management sees a clear path to sustained profitability and cash flow generation. It's a confident outlook for a business that lives on highways and street corners.

In the market, Lamar Advertising stock closed lower by 0.67% at $132.83 on Thursday. Sometimes the market takes a minute to read the signs.