So here's a thing that happened: after some online chatter about former President Barack Obama saying aliens are "real" on a podcast last week, former President Donald Trump fired off a Truth Social post late Thursday. He promised to direct the Secretary of War and other agencies to start identifying and releasing government files on extraterrestrials, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs).

Trump made this declaration after accusing Obama earlier in the day of revealing classified information with his alien comments. "He's not supposed to be doing that," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. When asked if he also thinks aliens are real, Trump said: "Well, I don't know if they're real or not."

Declassification Or Déjà Vu?

For people who've been watching Trump for a while, comments about extraterrestrial life aren't exactly new territory. During his first term, Trump acknowledged being briefed on UFO sightings by Navy pilots and said, "I want them to think whatever they think."

Former U.S. presidents have dabbled in UFO transparency before. Bill Clinton has admitted that he sent federal agents to find out if aliens were hiding out at Nevada's so-called Area 51. But here's the official line: in a 2024 report, the Pentagon said there was "no evidence" that the U.S. government had encountered alien life, and that most UFO sightings were just ordinary objects.

Prediction Market Alien Odds Climb

Now here's where it gets interesting for the markets crowd. Traders in prediction markets focused on "alien disclosure" have generally been skeptical, citing a lack of concrete policy movement or verifiable evidence. But Trump's Thursday remarks actually moved the needle.

On Polymarket, the contract "Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" saw its implied probability climb from roughly 11% to the low-20s in the hours after Trump's announcement, with total trading volume approaching well over $4.3 million.

Contracts on Kalshi also saw a similar uptick. The odds of the U.S. confirming aliens before 2027 jumped from 17.3% on Feb. 19 to 28.4% at last check, with trading volume at $4.8 million.

So what we have here is a classic market reaction to political rhetoric—people are literally betting real money that Trump's promise might lead to something concrete. Whether that's wise or not depends on how seriously you take presidential promises about alien file releases versus Pentagon reports saying there's no evidence of aliens. The markets, at least temporarily, seem to be taking the promise seriously enough to move the odds.