Marketdash

Futures Bounce Back as Investors Brace for GDP and Inflation Data

MarketDash
U.S. stock futures rose Friday morning, setting up for a rebound after Thursday's losses, with all eyes on key economic data and a handful of stocks making big moves on earnings news.

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So, after a down day Thursday, the market decided to try again Friday morning. U.S. stock futures were all in the green, suggesting investors were willing to look past the previous session's dip. But everyone's really just waiting for the main event: a double dose of economic data scheduled for later in the morning.

Wall Street's attention is squarely on the fourth-quarter GDP number and, perhaps more importantly, the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for December. These numbers will give the clearest signal yet on whether the economy is still running hot and if inflation is cooling fast enough for the Fed's liking.

Adding a layer of geopolitical uncertainty to the morning, former President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday that it must strike a nuclear deal within 10 to 15 days or face "really bad things." Tehran responded by threatening retaliation against U.S. bases across the Middle East if attacked. It's the kind of headline that can make traders a little jumpy.

In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield was sitting at 4.07%, with the two-year at 3.47%. Meanwhile, the market's crystal ball—the CME Group's FedWatch tool—shows traders are almost certain (94% likelihood) that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in March.

Here’s how the major index futures were shaping up in premarket trading:

IndexPerformance (+/-)
Dow Jones0.26%
S&P 5000.37%
Nasdaq 1000.47%
Russell 20000.34%

The popular ETFs that track the broader market were also higher. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.41% at $687.26, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which follows the Nasdaq 100, advanced 0.50% to $606.50.

Stocks on the Move

While the macro picture set the stage, individual company news drove some dramatic premarket moves.

Dropbox

Dropbox Inc. (DBX) was down 4.16% despite reporting fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations. The cloud storage company also gave a sales outlook for fiscal year 2026 that was roughly in line with what analysts were predicting. Sometimes a "good, but not great" report just isn't enough to please the market. Market data indicates DBX has maintained a weaker price trend across short, medium, and long-term timeframes.

Copart

The online vehicle auction house Copart Inc. (CPRT) wasn't so lucky, tumbling 6.64% after posting disappointing second-quarter earnings. The company reported a profit of 36 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate of 40 cents. Market data shows CPRT with a weak price trend, though it maintains a solid quality ranking.

Comfort Systems USA

On the brighter side, Comfort Systems USA Inc. (FIX) jumped 4.57%. The HVAC and plumbing services provider reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and decided to raise its quarterly dividend—a classic one-two punch that investors love. Market data notes FIX has a stronger price trend but a poor value ranking.

Grail

Then there was the biotech bloodbath. Grail Inc. (GRAL) absolutely cratered, plunging 47.04% after reporting its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings. The company, which focuses on early cancer detection, posted revenue of $41.3 million and a net loss of $99.2 million. That loss figure includes $34.6 million related to amortizing intangible items from its acquisition by Illumina. Market data indicates GRAL maintains a weaker price trend across all time horizons.

Candel Therapeutics

Another biotech, Candel Therapeutics Inc. (CADL), fell 12.27% after announcing the pricing of a $100 million public stock offering. When a company sells more shares, it dilutes existing shareholders, and the market often doesn't like that unless the cash is going toward something spectacularly promising. Market data shows CADL also maintains a weak price trend.

A Look Back at Thursday

To understand why futures were bouncing, it helps to remember where we came from. On Thursday, the major indices closed lower. It was a classic "risk-off" sort of day, with investors flocking to the safety of Utilities, which gained 1.13%. On the flip side, Financials took the hardest hit, dropping 0.86%.

IndexPerformance (+/-)Value
Dow Jones-0.54%49,395.16
S&P 500-0.28%6,861.89
Nasdaq Composite-0.31%22,682.73
Russell 20000.24%2,665.09
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Weekly insights + SMS (optional)

What the Pros Are Saying

Amid the daily noise, some strategists are keeping the long view. Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, is firmly in the bullish camp. He recently upgraded his U.S. GDP growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.4%, calling the current pace "robust for the world's largest economy."

His advice? Don't hide in defensive stocks. Instead, lean into the sectors that benefit from that growth. He specifically likes Financials and Industrials. He points out that Industrials are a direct play on the massive "artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout," which requires huge investments in data centers and power grids.

Wren acknowledges that a midterm election year can be bumpy, but he sees those dips as a chance to buy. "In our view, pullbacks are opportunities to step into large- and mid-cap domestic equities in favored sectors," he said. His bottom line is clear: "We do not favor defensive positioning."

The Economic Calendar for Friday

Here's the lineup of data that will drive the conversation today:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: The main event. Fourth-quarter GDP, along with December's personal income, spending, and both the headline and core PCE inflation readings.
  • 9:45 a.m. ET: February's flash readings for the S&P U.S. Services and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
  • 10:00 a.m. ET: A catch-up report on new home sales for November and December (which were delayed), plus the preliminary consumer sentiment data for February.

Around the Markets: Oil, Gold, Crypto, and the World

In other asset classes, it was a mixed bag. Crude oil futures were down 0.39% to hover around $66.14 a barrel. Gold, however, was shining, with the spot price up 0.89% to about $5,040.69 an ounce. (For context, its all-time high is $5,595.46). The U.S. Dollar Index was slightly lower.

In the crypto world, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 1.65% higher at $68,103.42.

Globally, Asian markets mostly closed lower, with exceptions in South Korea and India. European markets, however, were trading mostly higher in early Friday trade.

Futures Bounce Back as Investors Brace for GDP and Inflation Data

MarketDash
U.S. stock futures rose Friday morning, setting up for a rebound after Thursday's losses, with all eyes on key economic data and a handful of stocks making big moves on earnings news.

Get Market Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

So, after a down day Thursday, the market decided to try again Friday morning. U.S. stock futures were all in the green, suggesting investors were willing to look past the previous session's dip. But everyone's really just waiting for the main event: a double dose of economic data scheduled for later in the morning.

Wall Street's attention is squarely on the fourth-quarter GDP number and, perhaps more importantly, the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for December. These numbers will give the clearest signal yet on whether the economy is still running hot and if inflation is cooling fast enough for the Fed's liking.

Adding a layer of geopolitical uncertainty to the morning, former President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday that it must strike a nuclear deal within 10 to 15 days or face "really bad things." Tehran responded by threatening retaliation against U.S. bases across the Middle East if attacked. It's the kind of headline that can make traders a little jumpy.

In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield was sitting at 4.07%, with the two-year at 3.47%. Meanwhile, the market's crystal ball—the CME Group's FedWatch tool—shows traders are almost certain (94% likelihood) that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting in March.

Here’s how the major index futures were shaping up in premarket trading:

IndexPerformance (+/-)
Dow Jones0.26%
S&P 5000.37%
Nasdaq 1000.47%
Russell 20000.34%

The popular ETFs that track the broader market were also higher. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 0.41% at $687.26, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which follows the Nasdaq 100, advanced 0.50% to $606.50.

Stocks on the Move

While the macro picture set the stage, individual company news drove some dramatic premarket moves.

Dropbox

Dropbox Inc. (DBX) was down 4.16% despite reporting fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations. The cloud storage company also gave a sales outlook for fiscal year 2026 that was roughly in line with what analysts were predicting. Sometimes a "good, but not great" report just isn't enough to please the market. Market data indicates DBX has maintained a weaker price trend across short, medium, and long-term timeframes.

Copart

The online vehicle auction house Copart Inc. (CPRT) wasn't so lucky, tumbling 6.64% after posting disappointing second-quarter earnings. The company reported a profit of 36 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate of 40 cents. Market data shows CPRT with a weak price trend, though it maintains a solid quality ranking.

Comfort Systems USA

On the brighter side, Comfort Systems USA Inc. (FIX) jumped 4.57%. The HVAC and plumbing services provider reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and decided to raise its quarterly dividend—a classic one-two punch that investors love. Market data notes FIX has a stronger price trend but a poor value ranking.

Grail

Then there was the biotech bloodbath. Grail Inc. (GRAL) absolutely cratered, plunging 47.04% after reporting its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings. The company, which focuses on early cancer detection, posted revenue of $41.3 million and a net loss of $99.2 million. That loss figure includes $34.6 million related to amortizing intangible items from its acquisition by Illumina. Market data indicates GRAL maintains a weaker price trend across all time horizons.

Candel Therapeutics

Another biotech, Candel Therapeutics Inc. (CADL), fell 12.27% after announcing the pricing of a $100 million public stock offering. When a company sells more shares, it dilutes existing shareholders, and the market often doesn't like that unless the cash is going toward something spectacularly promising. Market data shows CADL also maintains a weak price trend.

A Look Back at Thursday

To understand why futures were bouncing, it helps to remember where we came from. On Thursday, the major indices closed lower. It was a classic "risk-off" sort of day, with investors flocking to the safety of Utilities, which gained 1.13%. On the flip side, Financials took the hardest hit, dropping 0.86%.

IndexPerformance (+/-)Value
Dow Jones-0.54%49,395.16
S&P 500-0.28%6,861.89
Nasdaq Composite-0.31%22,682.73
Russell 20000.24%2,665.09
Get Market Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS (optional)

What the Pros Are Saying

Amid the daily noise, some strategists are keeping the long view. Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, is firmly in the bullish camp. He recently upgraded his U.S. GDP growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.4%, calling the current pace "robust for the world's largest economy."

His advice? Don't hide in defensive stocks. Instead, lean into the sectors that benefit from that growth. He specifically likes Financials and Industrials. He points out that Industrials are a direct play on the massive "artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout," which requires huge investments in data centers and power grids.

Wren acknowledges that a midterm election year can be bumpy, but he sees those dips as a chance to buy. "In our view, pullbacks are opportunities to step into large- and mid-cap domestic equities in favored sectors," he said. His bottom line is clear: "We do not favor defensive positioning."

The Economic Calendar for Friday

Here's the lineup of data that will drive the conversation today:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: The main event. Fourth-quarter GDP, along with December's personal income, spending, and both the headline and core PCE inflation readings.
  • 9:45 a.m. ET: February's flash readings for the S&P U.S. Services and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
  • 10:00 a.m. ET: A catch-up report on new home sales for November and December (which were delayed), plus the preliminary consumer sentiment data for February.

Around the Markets: Oil, Gold, Crypto, and the World

In other asset classes, it was a mixed bag. Crude oil futures were down 0.39% to hover around $66.14 a barrel. Gold, however, was shining, with the spot price up 0.89% to about $5,040.69 an ounce. (For context, its all-time high is $5,595.46). The U.S. Dollar Index was slightly lower.

In the crypto world, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 1.65% higher at $68,103.42.

Globally, Asian markets mostly closed lower, with exceptions in South Korea and India. European markets, however, were trading mostly higher in early Friday trade.