So, Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB) had a bit of a rough Friday. The stock slid, continuing what's been a volatile stretch for pretty much anything related to space. It's one of those days where the sector gets hit from a couple of different angles at once.

The SpaceX IPO Effect: A $1.5 Trillion Magnet

Let's start with the big, shiny object in the room: SpaceX. There's been a lot of chatter lately about a potential initial public offering for Elon Musk's space giant, with numbers being thrown around like $1.5 trillion. That kind of speculation acts like a giant magnet for investor money. When people start thinking about putting cash into what could be the biggest space IPO ever, they tend to pull some of that capital from other places to make room. Unfortunately for Rocket Lab and its peers, they're often the "other places." This sector-wide repositioning has coincided with broad declines across launch and satellite companies throughout early 2026.

When Washington Closes the Checkbook

Adding some company-specific pressure is a move from Congress. Lawmakers decided to withhold funding for a planned 2031 Mars sample-return mission. For a company like Rocket Lab, which operates in the long-cycle world of space exploration and defense, this kind of news forces investors to recalibrate their expectations for the longer-term opportunity set. It's an overhang that makes people pause and reconsider the timeline for future government contracts.

It's not all cloudy skies, though. Rocket Lab has its Cassowary Vex mission targeting liftoff no earlier than late February. This marks the company's fourth hypersonic test in under six months using its HASTE rocket for the Defense Innovation Unit. The goal here is straightforward: lower costs and increase the test cadence for technology that can reach speeds up to Mach 20. It's a tangible piece of progress happening right now, even as longer-term plans face uncertainty.

Reading the Charts: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain?

From a technical standpoint, the picture is a bit mixed, which is often the case when sentiment shifts. Rocket Lab is trading about 6.2% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which suggests some short-term weakness. However, it's still sitting 11.5% *above* its 100-day SMA. That setup often indicates the longer-term uptrend is still intact, even if the stock is taking a breather or facing some pressure. For context, shares are up a staggering 185.59% over the past 12 months, and the stock is positioned closer to its 52-week highs than its lows.

• Key Resistance: $80.00
• Key Support: $67.00

What the Analysts Are Saying Ahead of Earnings

All eyes are now on the company's upcoming earnings report, scheduled for Feb. 26.

• EPS Estimate: A loss of 9 cents (an improvement from a loss of 10 cents year-over-year).
• Revenue Estimate: $178.07 million (up significantly from $132.39 million YoY).
• Valuation: A traditional P/E ratio isn't provided, which makes sense—profitability-based metrics are less informative when a company is still posting negative earnings per share.

The analyst consensus on the stock remains a Buy rating, with an average price target of $49.19. But that average masks some pretty bullish recent moves from big banks:

• Goldman Sachs: Maintained a Neutral rating but raised its target to $69.00 (Jan. 20).
• B of A Securities: Maintained a Buy rating and raised its target to a whopping $120.00 (Jan. 20).
• Morgan Stanley: Upgraded the stock to Overweight and raised its target to $105.00 (Jan. 16).

So, while the stock took a hit on Friday—down 6.06% to $71.94 at the time of publication, according to market data—the fundamental story from analysts hasn't really cracked. They're still largely bullish, just navigating the same sector headwinds and company-specific news that are spooking the market on any given day. It's a classic case of short-term sentiment clashing with longer-term conviction.