Here's a way to measure geopolitical tension: check the betting markets. While the U.S. and Iran exchange warnings and military assets move into position, prediction platforms are seeing millions of dollars in wagers on when a strike might happen and if Iran's top leader will stay in power.
The backdrop is familiar but tense. President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday that "really bad things" are coming if it doesn't strike a deal on its nuclear program within 10 to 15 days. According to reports, the U.S. is prepared to strike as early as this week, though a final decision hasn't been made.
The military posturing is hard to miss. Reports indicate two U.S. aircraft carriers are heading toward the region, accompanied by several destroyers, combat ships, and fighter jets. Iran, for its part, has conducted military drills with Russia and informed the United Nations it will strike all hostile targets if attacked.
What The Prediction Markets Are Saying
This is where it gets interesting. On Polymarket (POL), a prediction platform built on Polygon, there's an active contract asking "US strikes Iran by...?" Bettors are using the USDC (USDC) stablecoin to place their wagers, and the contract has seen action worth over $321 million.
The odds tell a story of escalating probability over time. The highest odds for a strike in February 2026 are on February 28, with bettors assigning a 27% chance. The probability rises to 50% by March 15 and climbs to 61% by March 31. The most confident bets are on dates further out: a 69% chance by June 30, 2026, and a 76% chance by December 31 of that year.
It's not just about military action. There's a separate, multi-million dollar bet on Iran's internal politics. On Kalshi, a federally authorized prediction platform, over $22 million has been wagered on whether Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will be removed from power. The odds have risen sharply, with bettors now placing a 50% probability that Khamenei will be removed before September 1, 2026—a 2% increase.
Prediction markets aren't crystal balls, but they aggregate the beliefs of people putting real money behind their forecasts. Right now, that collective intelligence suggests a high likelihood of significant events involving Iran within the next few years, with the probability ticking up as time goes on. It's a financial barometer for a geopolitical storm that may or may not arrive, but one that plenty of people are willing to bet on.
