When it comes to the frenzied bidding war over Warner Bros Discovery Inc. (WBD), investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management isn't holding back. His assessment? Both Netflix Inc. (NFLX) and Paramount Skydance Corp. (PSKY) are throwing good money after bad.
Warner Bros Bidding War Has One Investor Calling It a 'Dog Asset' as Netflix and Paramount Battle at $30 Per Share
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Calling Out a 'Dog Asset'
Speaking to Fox Business on Tuesday, Gerber revealed he initially thought Netflix was just playing games—entering the Warner Bros auction to inflate the price for Paramount, which he noted is quickly emerging as a legitimate competitor. But Netflix's apparent commitment to actually winning the deal caught him off guard.
"I'm not sure what they would do with Warner Brothers and how that would actually create value for Netflix shareholders other than protecting their moat," he said.
And that's where things get spicy. Gerber didn't sugarcoat his view of Warner Bros as an investment. "Nobody's made any money on Warner Brothers stock," he pointed out, suggesting that shareholders "will be happy to get their money back in cash and get out of this nightmare."
His valuation? Warner Bros is a "dog asset" worth no more than $15 per share. Meanwhile, Netflix and Paramount are lobbing bids of $27.75 and $30 per share at each other. "Either way, both parties are vastly overpaying for the asset," Gerber declared.
So why the inflated offers? Gerber points to two factors: major studio assets rarely hit the market, and when they do, competitive bidding takes on a life of its own. "It's mostly because it's such a rare asset to be for sale, but it's also because they're bidding against each other," he explained.
Despite his criticism of the deal, Gerber—whose firm counts Netflix as one of its "largest" holdings—believes the streaming giant will be "fine" regardless of the outcome. There's something reassuring about confidence, even when you think your biggest holding might be overpaying by double.
While many in Hollywood are "very bullish on what Ellison is doing at Paramount Sky Dance," according to Gerber, the Netflix play remains puzzling from a pure value creation standpoint.
Politics Enter the Chat
If the valuation questions weren't messy enough, the deal has become a political minefield. Paramount's hostile bid is backed partly by Affinity Partners, the investment firm run by Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law, alongside several Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds.
Trump, who also happens to be close to Paramount CEO David Ellison, made it clear he plans to insert himself into the federal review process. "I'll be involved in that decision," he said earlier this week, warning that the deal could create a combined entity with a "very big market share" that "could be a problem."
So you've got a bidding war with questionable valuations, political connections running through the deal structure, and antitrust concerns being voiced by the president himself. Just another Tuesday in media and entertainment M&A.
Shares of Warner Bros Discovery were up 3.78% on Tuesday, closing at $28.26, and ticked up another 0.35% in after-hours trading. Interestingly, the stock is now trading right around those bid levels that Gerber thinks are wildly inflated. The market, it seems, is betting that someone will actually pay up—even if the underlying value proposition looks shaky to some veteran investors.
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