Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) is entering what looks like a fundamentally different phase of growth, and it's not just about people making up for lost vacation time anymore. The online travel platform is now benefiting from structural advantages that should outlast any cyclical bounce, according to Benchmark Equity Research analyst Fawne Jiang.
Jiang reaffirmed her Buy rating and raised her price target to $82 from $80, pointing to resilient travel demand, accelerating international scale, and expanding operating leverage as the real drivers behind this transition.
The third-quarter 2025 results back up that thesis pretty convincingly. Trip.com delivered a 16% year-over-year jump in net revenue to 18.3 billion Chinese yuan (about $2.58 billion), beating expectations across accommodations, transportation, corporate travel, and packaged tours. That's not one segment carrying the load; it's broad-based momentum.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at 6.35 billion yuan, outperforming forecasts by more than 6%. Non-GAAP EPADS hit $3.87, with some help from gains tied to asset sales. Meanwhile, Golden Week bookings surged 30%, and the company continued picking up global market share, which management sees as evidence of underlying strength across the business.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Jiang notes that management sounds increasingly confident about both domestic and outbound travel trends, enough to raise revenue guidance. She's now forecasting 17% revenue growth, driven by sustained leisure demand and cross-border travel activity.
There's a trade-off worth watching: a greater mix of international volume could compress margins in the near term. But Jiang expects operating leverage in product development and general and administrative expenses to offset much of that pressure.
Looking further out to fiscal 2026 and beyond, international expansion is where things get really interesting. Low online penetration rates in key Asia-Pacific markets, rising demand for long-haul travel, and a broader set of differentiated offerings give Trip.com a clear path to capturing additional market share. Pair that with ongoing AI investment and disciplined execution, and you have what Jiang believes is a recipe for scalable, sustainable growth.
Her $82 price target is based on a 16x multiple applied to her fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS estimate of $4.43, plus net cash per share. She argues the premium valuation is justified by the company's 15-20% mid- to long-term earnings growth profile and the runway for continued global share gains.
Price Action: TCOM shares were trading higher by 2.37% to $72.57 at last check Tuesday.
