After several days of uncertainty about potential flight disruptions, the Thanksgiving holiday is shaping up to deliver record-breaking travel numbers. The question isn't whether Americans will travel this year—it's whether the infrastructure can handle them all.
Nearly 82 million Americans are expected to travel over Thanksgiving, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). Now that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has given airlines the green light to resume normal operations, millions are finalizing plans to hit the roads and pack the airports.
Breaking Records Across The Board
AAA projects 81.83 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles between Tuesday, November 25, and Monday, December 1. That's the highest volume ever recorded for Thanksgiving, topping last year's record of 80.22 million and sitting more than 4 million above 2019 levels, before the pandemic turned travel planning into a chaotic guessing game.
"People are willing to brave the crowds and make last-minute adjustments to their plans to make lifelong memories," said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel.
Air travel deserves much of the credit for this year's growth. AAA expects 6 million people to fly during the holiday period, a figure that's been bouncing between five and six million for several years but now sits near the upper end of that range. While the year-over-year increase from 2024 is modest, the bigger story is the 15% jump from 2019. That outpaces the 4% rebound in road travel over the same period, suggesting Americans are increasingly comfortable returning to airports despite the hassles.
This momentum persists even as airfares remain stubbornly elevated and airlines face ongoing operational challenges. Travelers are paying an average of $700 for a domestic round trip—similar to last year—yet demand hasn't budged. Instead, passengers are getting creative: flying earlier in the week, blending remote work into travel schedules, or shifting return dates to avoid peak pricing and keep budgets under control.
Last week, Bank of America Securities analysts noted that while the federal government shutdown created short-term operational headaches for carriers like American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL), Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), and others, the impact represents a one-off external shock rather than a sign of weakening travel demand.
The Road Warriors Still Rule
Despite the aviation surge, road travel remains king. About 73 million people—nearly 90% of all travelers—are expected to drive this Thanksgiving, representing an increase of 1.3 million over last year. Hertz anticipates Wednesday, November 26, will be its busiest car rental day, with demand peaking in Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark. There's a silver lining for road trippers: average rental rates are 15% cheaper than last Thanksgiving.
Another 2.5 million people are opting for buses, trains, or cruises, marking an 8.5% jump from last year. The cruise segment is particularly hot, driven by surging interest in holiday sailings as the industry continues its post-pandemic comeback.
Where Everyone's Going
Florida is absolutely dominating domestic flight bookings. Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Tampa are all showing up among the top destinations. Other major U.S. hotspots include New York, San Francisco, Honolulu, and Las Vegas—a mix of family gatherings, warm weather escapes, and people who'd rather gamble than carve turkey.
On the international front, travelers are jetting off to Europe, the Caribbean, and Australia. Paris, Amsterdam, Vienna, Cancun, and Punta Cana are leading AAA's list. Warm weather, European holiday markets, and family-friendly vacation packages are driving the trend, proving that some people would rather eat croissants than cranberry sauce this year.
