Former national security adviser John Bolton thinks President Donald Trump is playing a high-stakes game with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and he's not entirely sure what the rules are. Speaking to CNN on Monday, Bolton used a memorable metaphor: Trump has "put the gun on the table" in his showdown with Venezuela. The question now is whether he plans to pull the trigger.

Will Blowing Up Boats Actually Stop Drugs?

When CNN's Kate Bolduan asked Bolton whether recent U.S. strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats would actually stop narcotics from reaching American shores or deter Maduro, the former adviser was skeptical. Drug traffickers aren't idiots, he pointed out. "Well, I think the drug smugglers can obviously see what's happening. It'd be stunning, as they do, that they don't shift their routes and find other ways to get drugs into the United States," Bolton said. As long as Americans keep demanding drugs, cartels will keep finding ways to supply them.

Bolton also suggested the boat strikes reveal confused objectives inside the White House. Is this about stopping narcotics, or is it about regime change? The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group from Europe to the Caribbean suggests something bigger than just interdicting speedboats, he argued.

Carrier Strike Group Ups the Ante

The Pentagon's largest aircraft carrier and its battle group arrived off Latin America last week, part of a broader military buildup in the U.S. Southern Command area of operations. Officials publicly describe it as a campaign against "narcoterrorist" networks, but the optics are unmistakable.

Since September, U.S. forces have hit more than a dozen suspected drug-running vessels in international waters across the Caribbean and eastern Pacific. The strikes have killed at least 80 people, according to U.S. and media reports.

Mixed Messages: Threats and Talk

Even as warships gather and missiles fly, Trump told reporters on Sunday that diplomacy might be on the table. "We may be having some discussions with Maduro, and we'll see how that turns out. They would like to talk," he said in Florida.

Maduro, who denies Washington's accusations that his government is tied to drug cartels, responded last week by calling on Trump to "unite for the peace of the continent" during a CNN interview. Both countries now have significant military assets deployed in the Caribbean, creating a tense standoff with uncertain outcomes.