U.S. stock futures started the week on a positive note Monday, shaking off Friday's mixed finish as investors braced for one of the more consequential weeks of the earnings season and economic data calendar.
Futures across the major benchmark indices pushed higher, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the way at 0.73%, followed by the S&P 500 at 0.45%, the Russell 2000 at 0.24%, and the Dow Jones at 0.10%.
The optimism comes despite lingering uncertainty around the full resumption of economic data following the recent government shutdown. That said, investors will finally get their hands on the long-awaited September jobs report Thursday, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. This delayed snapshot of the labor market arrives at a particularly interesting moment, especially given recent cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials that has cast doubt on whether we'll see another rate cut next month.
Beyond the jobs data, this week also brings Nvidia Corp. (NVDA)'s earnings results on Wednesday. No pressure there or anything.
In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.12% while the two-year hovered at 3.60%. Meanwhile, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed markets pricing in just a 43.6% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at its December meeting. Translation: traders aren't exactly holding their breath.
In premarket action Monday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) climbed 0.31% to $674.02, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) advanced 0.57% to $612.49.
Companies Making Moves
Alphabet Catches a Buffett Bid
Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) saw its shares rocket 5.39% higher in premarket trading Monday after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK) unveiled a new stake worth $4.34 billion in the Class A shares of the company Friday. When the Oracle of Omaha makes a move, people notice.
The stock maintains a stronger price trend across short, medium, and long-term timeframes, with a moderate value ranking according to market data.
Dell Gets Downgraded
Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) tumbled 4.04% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to 'Underweight' from 'Overweight' on Monday, while slashing its price target from $144.00 to $110.00. That's quite the vote of no confidence.
The stock shows a stronger price trend over the long term but weakness in the short and medium terms, though it maintains a strong growth ranking.
Boeing Books Another Big Order
Boeing Co. (BA) edged up 0.30% as Emirates placed its third order for 777X airplanes to fuel future expansion and meet growing travel demand. For a company that's had its share of turbulence lately, any good news on the order front is welcome.
The stock maintains a weaker price trend over the short and medium terms, but shows strength in the long term with a moderate quality ranking.
Palantir Partners Up
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) advanced 0.73% after partnering with Multiverse to launch new apprenticeship programs designed to upskill NHS staff on the Palantir-supplied Federated Data Platform. The aim is to leverage AI and data skills to enhance patient care and operational efficiency, which sounds like exactly the kind of thing Palantir loves to talk about.
The stock maintained a strong price trend over the medium and long terms, with a weak trend in the short term.
Helmerich and Payne Reports Tonight
Helmerich and Payne Inc. (HP) dipped 0.47% as the market positioned ahead of its earnings report due after the close. Analysts expect earnings of 25 cents per share on revenue of $973.68 million.
The stock shows a stronger price trend across all timeframes with a strong value ranking.
How Friday Finished
Friday's session delivered a mixed bag, with the major indices unable to agree on a direction. The Nasdaq Composite managed to eke out a 0.13% gain to close at 22,900.59, while the Russell 2000 added 0.22% to finish at 2,388.23. The S&P 500 essentially went nowhere, slipping 0.05% to 6,734.11, and the Dow Jones took the biggest hit, falling 0.65% to 47,147.48.
Sectors on the S&P 500 were mostly negative, with materials, financials, and communication services recording the biggest losses.
The Bull Case from the Analysts
Analyst Ryan Detrick offered a refreshingly optimistic, data-driven view of the market that prioritizes strong fundamentals over temporary political noise.
He highlights robust S&P 500 earnings forecasts for the third quarter, noting projected year-over-year growth of 13.1%. Detrick specifically points to global strength, observing that companies earning over 50% of their revenue outside the U.S. are expected to see even higher 13.5% growth. He uses this to counter negative sentiment, advising, "Next time someone tells you how bad the global economy is, show them this."
Detrick also downplays the impact of political turmoil like government shutdowns. He notes that markets gaining during a shutdown is "quite normal." Citing historical data, he emphasizes the real trend is positive: "once things open back up, stocks do pretty well." His analysis shows the S&P 500 is higher 19 out of 22 times one year after a shutdown, with an average gain of 12.7%. Not a bad track record.
Your Economic Calendar for the Week
Here's what investors will be watching as the week unfolds:
Monday: November's Empire State manufacturing survey data drops at 8:30 a.m. ET. Then we get a parade of Fed speakers: Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 9:00 a.m., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at 1:00 p.m., and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller at 3:35 p.m. ET.
Tuesday: October's import price index arrives at 8:30 a.m., followed by industrial production and capacity utilization data at 9:15 a.m. Both could still be impacted despite the government reopening, according to the BLS website. November's home builder confidence index and August's business inventories data come out at 10:00 a.m., with Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speaking at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Wednesday: A busy morning starts at 8:30 a.m. with November's Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, October's housing starts and building permits, and August's U.S. trade deficit data. The minutes from the Fed's October FOMC meeting get released at 2:00 p.m. ET. Oh, and Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings. No big deal.
Thursday: The main event arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET with September's U.S. employment report, unemployment rate, hourly wages, and initial jobless claims for the latest week. October's existing home sales and U.S. leading economic indicators likely come out at 10:00 a.m. More Fed speakers follow: Governor Lisa Cook at 11:00 a.m., President Austan Goolsbee at 1:40 p.m., and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson at 6:45 p.m. ET.
Friday: The week wraps with another Fed speaking marathon. Governor Michael Barr goes at 8:30 a.m., Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 8:45 a.m., and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan at 9:00 a.m. ET. November's S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI arrive at 9:45 a.m., and November's final consumer sentiment data gets released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Commodities, Crypto, and Global Markets
Crude oil futures traded slightly lower in the early New York session, down 0.07% to hover around $59.91 per barrel.
Gold spot rose 0.20% to around $4,087.71 per ounce. For context, its last record high stood at $4,381.60 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot ticked 0.08% higher to the 99.3800 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 0.75% lower at $99,380.00.
Asian markets closed mixed on Monday. China's CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices all fell, while Australia's ASX 200, India's NIFTY 50, and South Korea's Kospi indices rose. European markets were also lower in early trade, continuing the mixed global picture.
