When Trade Policy Meets Reality

Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro isn't pulling punches on President Donald Trump's latest tariff moves. Speaking on his show last week, Shapiro dissected new trade agreements the administration announced with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador—deals that carved out exemptions for coffee, bananas, and other commodities Americans rely on but don't produce domestically.

The framework is straightforward enough: The U.S. will remove tariffs on products that "cannot be produced in the United States in sufficient quantities, like coffee," while keeping a 10% levy on most other imports from Guatemala, Argentina, and El Salvador, and a 15% tax on goods from Ecuador.

But Shapiro sees something bigger at play here. According to him, these exemptions represent "a tacit admission that tariffs increase prices on American consumers." It's basic supply and demand, he explained. When you restrict supply while demand stays constant, prices go up. Take bananas: "If there are fewer bananas and the same number of people" trying to buy them, the price jumps.

The Numbers Behind the Carveouts

These aren't minor exemptions either. Shapiro pointed out that bananas represent 22.9% of Guatemala's exports to the United States, while fruits and nuts make up 12.4% of Ecuador's shipments. So while the administration maintains tariffs on paper, a substantial chunk of these countries' exports now flow into the U.S. duty-free.

"If you wish to lower prices, perhaps you should remove trade barriers on the countries that are going to supply you [with] cheaper and better products," Shapiro said.

Inflation Data Tells the Story

The tariff impact isn't just theoretical. Recent economic data shows Trump's trade barriers are driving up costs across the board. The ISM Services Prices Index jumped to 70% in October—its highest reading in three years. Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, noted that "respondents continued to mention the impact of tariffs on prices paid." The ISM Manufacturing PMI surged to 58%, marking its 13th consecutive monthly increase, with surveyed executives pointing directly at tariffs as the culprit.

Economist Peter Schiff has challenged Trump's claims about conquering inflation, warning that the "average rate" under the current administration would end up worse than under former President Joe Biden. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, echoed the concern: "Inflation is uncomfortably high and is set to accelerate further in the coming months," attributing the trend to Trump's trade and tariff policies.

The coffee and banana exemptions might make morning routines more affordable, but they also raise an uncomfortable question about the broader tariff strategy—one that Shapiro clearly thinks deserves more attention.