Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) shares took another hit Friday afternoon, capping off a rough week that saw investors react poorly to mixed earnings results and worries about shareholder dilution. The stock closed down 5.74% at $85.54, trading below its 50-day moving average in what appears to be a technical correction.
What Spooked Investors
The trouble started when Nebius reported third-quarter revenue of $146.1 million, falling short of the $153.69 million consensus estimate. Add in a lowered full-year revenue outlook of $500-$550 million, and investors were already nervous. Then came the announcement that really stung: an equity distribution agreement to sell up to 25 million Class A shares. Dilution is rarely popular on Wall Street.
The Bull Case Nobody's Ignoring
Here's where it gets interesting. Wall Street analysts aren't running for the exits. In fact, they're treating this pullback like a gift. Why? Because underneath the revenue miss sits some pretty remarkable growth. Nebius posted 237% year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter. That's not a typo.
Even more compelling is the company's massive infrastructure deal with Meta Platforms Inc. (META). The $3 billion, five-year agreement positions Nebius squarely in the AI infrastructure buildout that's dominating tech investment themes right now. The company's plans to expand capacity to 2.5GW suggest management is thinking long-term, and the AI infrastructure thesis remains very much alive.
What the Analysts Are Saying
Northland Capital Markets raised its price target to $211, showing serious conviction despite the recent turbulence. D.A. Davidson maintained a $150 target and labeled Nebius a "top AI pick" with expectations for profitability arriving in 2026. That's the kind of endorsement that suggests analysts are looking past the near-term noise.
The Technical Picture
Market data paints an interesting split personality. The stock currently shows a short-term negative price trend, which matches what anyone watching the chart this week already knows. But the momentum score sits at an exceptionally high 98.65, suggesting the underlying strength hasn't completely evaporated despite the selloff.
The question for investors becomes whether this is a temporary stumble for a high-growth AI infrastructure play, or something more serious. Wall Street seems to be betting on the former.
